US gives Israel 30 days to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza: otherwise there will be consequences (375th day of war)

On another level, the Israeli Government has informed Washington that it will avoid attacking Iranian uranium enrichment and oil storage sites, the newspaper reports. “The Washington Post”. The aim will be to reduce the likelihood that Israel’s retaliation will immediately trigger an all-out war between the two adversaries. These red lines would also have been established by Washington expressing that the US did not want to be drawn into a greater confrontation in the Middle East, at a time when presidential elections are just around the corner.

The Israeli retaliatory strike must then stick to military targets in Iran. In addition to the scale of the attacks not being known for now, Israel also admits that a round of new offensives could follow later, against more ambitious objectives, if Iran persists in responding.

Iran responded with drones and ballistic missiles against Israel in April, after Israel executed several Iranian commanders. Israel responded by attacking an Iranian radar station and later killing a Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was visiting Tehran. In recent weeks, Iran has fired another massive round of missiles at Israel, partly in response to Haniyeh’s assassination, leaving U.S. officials on edge about Israel’s next move.

Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke last week for the first time in months. In a statement released on Tuesday, Netanyahu’s office said: “We listen to the views of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on national interests.”

There is also a wide range of military targets at Israel’s disposal, such as missile and drone launchers, missile and drone storage sites, military equipment factories, military bases, and large executive buildings. There is also the possibility of nuclear research laboratories being attacked, thus circumventing the possibility of reaching Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment sites.

“The biggest challenge for Israel would be the distance and topography of Iran,” Abhijit Apsingikar, Indian military analyst at GlobalData (a risk analysis consultancy in London), tells Expresso. “Iran, which has a mostly mountainous terrain, has invested significantly in the development of robust air defense systems based on Chinese and Russian technology and, although technologically outdated, has a network of shelters and underground bases that are robust and highly survivable, spread throughout the vast country, which makes it particularly difficult to suppress them over large distances. Furthermore, Iran has also developed a robust ballistic missile program, which remains a major risk to Israel, and despite its investments in the Arrow missile defense system, missile salvos can overwhelm the missile defense systems, saturating it. you.”

The possibilities of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel are increasing “at an alarming rate”, assumes Abhijit Apsingikar. “With Iran persistently attacking Israel through its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, it is only a matter of time before Israel responds. However, the risks of triggering a wider conflict in the Middle East are a fundamental risk that the West cannot bear, and as such the US and the European Union could be expected to mediate to avoid a wider conflict.”

Jamie Shea, former deputy assistant secretary-general for NATO’s Emerging Security Challenges, also believes “a lot depends on Iran and the kind of missile and drone capabilities it gives Hezbollah, and the weapons it allows the organization to use to attack Israel” – this will condition the responses and retaliations of Israel, and, consequently, of the adversary. “Hezbollah receives orders from Tehran, and Iran knows that if Hezbollah attacks Israel with heavy ballistic missiles, it will be blamed, and Israel will attack Tehran, instead of keeping the war limited to Lebanon”, Jamie Shea explains to Expresso.

“Israel is attacking Hezbollah’s missile launchers in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley and its ammunition and missile depots in southern Beirut. It is launching multiple bombs to penetrate the bunkers Hezbollah underground. The IDF claims to have destroyed two thousand Hezbollah launchers and bunkers so far. This activity is expected to diminish Hezbollah’s ability to continue attacking northern Israel.” But Hezbollah also possesses long-range ballistic missiles supplied by Iran, and if Tehran allows Hezbollah to use these longer-range, faster-flying missiles, they could penetrate Israel’s missile defense and inflict considerable casualties on villages. and cities of Israel, according to Shea. “These missiles could be fired from northern Lebanon or even Syria, beyond the range of Israel’s current operations in southern Lebanon. This would make it difficult for Israel to achieve its goal of relocating its 60,000 citizens to their homes in northern Israel, even if the IDF attempted to establish a large, long-term occupation zone in southern Lebanon. The problem for Israel is that it cannot occupy all of Lebanon, as it currently occupies all of Gaza. Therefore, it cannot eliminate Hezbollah nor isolate Lebanon’s borders to prevent it from receiving new supplies and missiles from Iran. Even in fully occupied Gaza, Hamas still survives and has even reconstituted itself in the north.”