This week it is news that the Government will present a plan to relaunch the Portuguese economy. It’s always good, and I applaud it, when the economy is central to the political debate. Only with economic growth can we have more jobs, better salaries, sustainable public finances, growth in social support and more public investment.
We will certainly return to these pages soon to analyze the plan presented. I hope, for the good of the country, that it is a good document that does not destroy what was good during the eight years of PS governance. I have the greatest personal regard for the Minister of Economy. It would be important for it to gain more weight in the political debate than it has had up until now. There is in public policies, and this is an old problem, too much finance and too little economics. It is up to us, as the opposition, to do everything in our power to improve this situation, contribute to changing the paradigm and exercise rigorous scrutiny in Parliament.
However, I fear that what will be presented is just the result of populism and false myths. The title of what the government proposes raises this question right away as it is, at the very least, fallacious. Let’s get to the facts. Regarding the behavior of the Portuguese economy, and no matter how much they try to manipulate numbers, the truth is this: between 2016 and 2023 the country showed growth of 2.2%, compared to the 0.2% of the average of the last 15 years. Growing more is positive, but talking about relaunching what achieved good results is, to say the least, strange.
We must also remember that, between 2016 and 2023, we live in a unique time in our History. The pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine and the inflationary crisis resulting from a supply shock changed everything. Portugal, from an economic point of view, responded well, and at the end of 2023 wealth was 6% higher than in 2019. We recovered well from the pandemic. This 6% compared favorably with the 3.2% eurozone average, 2.5% in Spain, 1.5% in France or 0.5% in Germany. And there is no point comparing numbers with countries with which we have no relations or with very different economic structures, as certain right-wingers like to do. The incomparable cannot be compared.
These three countries are our main destination markets. Last year, for example, they represented 49.6% of our country’s merchandise exports on the international market, and more than 70% of intra-community exports. They are also our three main import markets. It therefore makes perfect sense to compare with countries with which we have significant commercial relations, and not with those with which we have little or no interactions.
In relation to exports, as it is a topic that is of great interest to the Minister, it is bizarre to have chosen not to have a Secretary of State for Internationalization. A mistake in my opinion, since, with this political decision, the subject loses daily monitoring and, therefore, centrality. We will see how Portugal will behave in exports and in attracting foreign direct investment. And, by the way, as AICEP was cleaned up by a mere political purge, let us hope, for the good of the country, that the results presented prove the correctness of this choice. However, we must not forget that, in 2015, exports represented 35% of GDP, and at the end of the PS Governments, their contribution to GDP was 50%.
In the face of the purge, the least we can demand are good results. It will not be acceptable if there is no improvement in international trade data. If an administration with good results is dismissed, the defense of the public interest can only demand that they be, at the very least, surpassed.
Allow me one last note on a side topic, but one of the greatest political relevance for the Portuguese. The diploma on the limit on fines for tolls came into force last Monday. This Law is the result of parliamentary negotiation in the final period of the last Legislature, already marked by much tension. The initial proposal was from the Liberal Initiative (IL), and the final text resulted from a negotiation between the PS and IL, demonstrating that dialogue is always possible. I am proud to have contributed to this work, as this is the role of those in public service: to solve problems for our citizens.
Hugo Costa
Economist and PS deputy
