Rita Carmo, on volcanic activity in Terceira: “We will continue to feel earthquakes in the coming days, albeit of lower magnitude”
In volcanology, optimism and pessimism vary depending on the statistics. And after the most recent news about the increase in the alert level for seismic activity on Terceira Island, these numbers returned to the forefront. “In 80% or 90% of cases, this does not evolve into a volcanic eruption scenario. In the other 10% to 20%, they may eventually evolve,” describes Rita Carmo, member of the board of the Azores Seismovolcanic Information and Surveillance Center (CIVISA), about the activity volcanic recorded on Terceira Island, in the Azores.
Rita Carmo, on one of the research missions at the La Palma volcano, in the Canaries
DR
The odds seem to be against an eruption of the Serra de Santa Bárbara volcano, but Rita Carmo confirms the first signs of change: “We can see that the volcano has started to suffer a increase in volume,” he says, on the Future of the Future podcast, this time recorded via videoconference: “In the next few days, [os habitantes da Terceira] they will certainly continue to experience earthquakes, albeit some of lower magnitude. We can’t stop them, but the truth is that people have to know what to do in the event of an earthquake,” predicts the volcanologist, advising you to consult the civil protection and other entities in the region.
Ãlvaro Covões
Rita Carmo
Last week, CIVISA updated the alert scale for the Serra de Santa Bárbara volcano from V2 to V3, and for the Terceira Fissural Volcanic System from V0 to V1. The scale goes from V0, for non-existent volcanic activity, to V7, which classifies an eruption of large proportions. Rita Carmo explains that the update of the Serra de Santa Bárbara alert level took into account the seismicity detected since the beginning of the year, but did not lose sight of other parameters that made “pass to the next level, which is V3, in which we confirm the reactivation†.
“Let’s say that, living in a volcanic and seismically active region like the Azores, there is always the risk of there being a volcanic eruption one day,†emphasizes the Azorean scientist.
Map that illustrates the confluence of the three tectonic plates that are at the origin of the Azores
DR
It was to illustrate the volcanic activity of the Azores that Rita Carmo brought two maps that help to understand the framework generated by tectonic plates and the main locations of the archipelago where the planet’s interstices continue to send signals to the surface. The researcher also brought a video to illustrate the sound and environment experienced in the Canary Islands, after joining the teams of scientists who studied the eruption of the La Palma volcano.
Aware of the unpredictability of volcanoes, Rita Carmo cannot rule out a possible eruption in the Serra de Santa Bárbara, but remembers that the V3 alert level is below that recorded in 2022 on the island of São Jorge, after leaving experts and the population in a state of shock and anticipation.
Map of the 28 eruptions recorded in the Azores throughout history
DR
“The destruction associated with seismic activity†and the fall of volcanic ash “caused around half of the population to migrate to the United States of America,†recalls Rita Carmo, about what happened in Capelinhos in the 50s.
Furthermore, volcanoes are today one of the identifying features of Azorean culture: many of the beliefs or religious traditions of these nine Atlantic islands began to take shape “in sequence of these events that were often called mysteries in which there was a phenomenon that people were unaware of”, and that changed “the traditions of the Azores”.
Matilde Fieschi
In São Jorge, the alert level even reached V4, which already suggests a possible eruption. Today the alert level for the Island of São Jorge has already dropped to V1, but in CIVISA there is the notion that, apart from monitoring, humanity does not control the â “humours†of magma when it finds a way to penetrate between tectonic plates and rise to the surface of the Earth’s crust – a logic that may scare us now, but it is also the founding moment of the Azores, as an archipelago that owes its existence to volcanoes resulting from the confluence of the Eurasian, African and American tectonic plates.
“I can say that, since the settlement of the archipelago, in the 15th century, we have had around 28 volcanic eruptions recorded in the archipelago,†says the head of CIVISA. Rita Carmo chooses a large eruption, which occurred more than 5000 years ago, as the most decisive for what is today the Archipelago, but does not forget the Capelinhos volcano , on the island of Faial, at a time when there were already film cameras.
João Pedro Morais
Asked about the authorities’ capacity to act in the event of an emergency, Rita Carmo takes advantage of what happened in São Jorge to give a positive note to the civil protection device, but admits that in the case of an eruption of great intensity there may be no alternative to removing people from the location.
“We know that we are in a volcanically active region and that there is always this problem that can occur. But the truth is that while that doesn’t happen, maybe we’ll let things go a little more calmly,” concludes the scientist.
Tiago Pereira Santos
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