The articles written by the PÚBLICO Brasil team are written in the variant of the Portuguese language used in Brazil.
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Anyone waiting for a clash between the left and the right in Brazil, with an eye on the 2026 presidential elections, will first watch a round within the extreme right, with, on one side, coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB) and, on the one hand, on the other, former president Jair Bolsonaro. Most recent research released by Quaest points to Marçal’s significant growth across the country, being defeated only by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), candidate for re-election.
The coach gained notoriety in the recent municipal elections, in which he narrowly missed out on the second round in São Paulo. With a radical speech, full of lies and attacks on the honor of his competitors, he even got chaired by a competitor, José Luiz Datena (PSDB), in one of the television debates. According to the Quaest survey, if the presidential elections in Brazil were held today, he would have 18% of the votes, against 32% for Lula.
Bolsonaro and his followers do not admit the possibility of Marçal occupying space in the hearts of far-right voters. First, because I consider him indomitable. Second, because he could frustrate Bolsonaro’s own plans to run as a candidate in 2026, if Congress overturns the ineligibility imposed by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The former president believes that this will happen as Lula dehydrates over the next two years, weighed down by the lack of support on the left.
For Bolsonaro, it is even interesting that Marçal is caught by the Electoral Court for having committed a series of crimes in the recent elections, the most serious of which was the publication of a false report indicating the involvement of Guilherme Boulos, from PSol, with cocaine. Boulos is in the second round in São Paulo, but with a remote chance of winning, given the conservatism of São Paulo voters, who are much more aligned to the right.
Without Bolsonaro, the right has a candidate to face Lula in 2026: Tarcísio de Freitas, from the Republicans, current governor of São Paulo. Not-so-radical conservatives have praised his name as a moderate politician, who shares anti-left thinking, but is not radical like the Bolsonarists. However, Marçal is also a threat to the governor’s higher goals, who appears with 15% of voting intentions.
It is true that the right is stronger than ever in Brazil. It emerged victorious in almost 4 thousand of the country’s almost 5.6 thousand municipalities. However, it will take a lot of unity so that Pablo Marçal does not become an obstacle on the journey towards the Palácio do Planalto. Bolsonaro has already warned allies that the coach is not in his plans. Therefore, it remains to be seen how the extremists will fight each other in the coming months and it is not known how voters will react. Brazil is really not for amateurs.
