A study by several researchers concluded that illegal immigrants in Europe account for less than 1% of the total population and the number has remained stable over the years.
In Europe, there is an “expectation that irregular immigration is always increasing, as a result of landings on the Mediterranean coasts”, but this idea that was created “does not seem to correspond to reality”, said João Carvalho, researcher at ISCTE, specialist in migration , mobility and ethnicity, which is part of the European MirreM project, which measures irregular immigration.
A similar study was carried out in 2008 and the conclusion is that “the size of the irregular population is more or less the same. So far it has appeared to be stable and there is no disproportionate growth in relation to other migratory flows”, stated João Carvalho.
The data points to a number that ranges from 2.6 to 3.2 million illegal immigrants in the 12 European countries studied, which represents 0.6% to 0.8% of the total population.
This proportion is well below the average for countries like the United States, where the 11 million illegal immigrants correspond to 3.5% of the total population.
In 2008, similar research pointed to a population of illegal immigrants in the same countries – United Kingdom, Germany, France, Greece, Spain, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Poland, Ireland, Italy and Finland – between 1.8 and 3. 8 million.
According to João Carvalho, Italy has numbers of illegal immigrants similar to 2008, Spain had an increase and Greece decreased, which proves that, “even in countries that are on the external borders of the European Union, the trend is not one of disproportionate growth and inevitable.”
More than border rules, what ends up regulating immigration is the economic dynamics of countries: “Apart from North Korea, where no one wants to go there, the rest depends. If there are job opportunities, people will go. If There’s a crisis, people leave.”
Portugal is not part of this study because, on the one hand, the objective was to compare with 2008 and the country was not part of this analysis package, but also because, in the Portuguese case, “it is not easy to obtain estimates”, due to requests for regularization which can be duplicated, under different legal solutions.
Therefore, “the Portuguese authorities never facilitated this documentation”, he explained.
However, for the researcher, if this comparison were made between 2008 and 2024, the data should indicate that “irregular immigration increased”, since that year was a “period in which immigration was already declining substantially due to the economic climate” less favorable.
“Now if we compare it with 2002”, the year in which Portugal experienced a period of economic expansion, this number of illegal immigrants “is similar to what we are experiencing today”, he considered, remembering that, during this period, the country “regularized more than 180 thousand of foreigners”
Nowadays, polarization and populist movements have brought the issue of immigrants to the agenda, constituting one of the “main political cleavages” in countries like the United Kingdom or Hungary.
However, in Portugal, regarding asylum legislation, the researcher considers that “there is a large gap between discourse and reality, in which the intensity of requests is very, very small”.
And even the issue of immigration “does not have the same reception” in Portugal as in other countries, added João Carvalho.
“We are well aware that there are political forces committed to politicizing immigration, considering immigration as one of Europe’s main problems”, but in Portugal “this phenomenon does not have the same level as in other countries”, according to the research carried out.
“Despite trying”, these populist movements “have not yet managed to place immigration among the main concerns of the Portuguese”, he said, admitting that this is a trend that could change in the future.
“I don’t have any crystal ball”, but “we know that, until now, anti-immigration mobilization campaigns have not been very successful”, he said.
