The energy transition or decarbonization process is already underway and there is no turning back. “It really has to be done”, says Nichola Silveira, CEO of PSA Sines, the company that manages Terminal XXI (containers). For the good of the planet and even of health. But “one thing is to reduce emissions, the other is to reduce emissions and end oil”, says Gustavo Paulo Duarte, CEO of Transportes Paulo Duarte. And ending oil does not seem possible to many of those who attended this morning at the conference that BP organized to present the Energy Outlook 2024 and which also included Sílvia Barata, CEO of BP Portugal, Robert Spicer, head of the mobility and transport area from BP; Paulo Carmona, the new director general of the General Directorate of Energy and Geology (DGEG); Teresa Ponce Leão, president of the National Energy and Geology Laboratory (LNEG); Nuno Lapa, professor at Universidade Nova and Rui Rei, president of Parques Tejo. These were the main conclusions.
1. Speed up the transition
- The BP Energy Outlook 2024 is clear in its conclusions: either the transition moves faster or it will be much more difficult to achieve the Paris goals and reduce carbon emissions. Difficult because more money will be spent and people will be more affected, says Robert Spicer.
- And for Nuno Lapa and Rui Rei, the transition that has been made is no longer entirely fair. Because, for example, not everyone has the financial capacity to buy an electric car.
- In any case, it really has to be done, and new technologies are needed, because electrification alone will not be enough.
For example, there are industries that cannot use electricity to heat ovens and need gas, but instead of being fossil fuel it can be green hydrogen, that is, made using renewable energy. Hydrogen is also considered a good solution for ships, but there is also talk of fuels based on hydrogenated vegetable oils (HVO). - In heavy transport, hydrogen is no longer talked about as much. More biofuels and synthetic fuels have been on the table.
- And then there are solutions that are not so technological, such as energy efficiency, noted Teresa Ponce Leão, remembering the financial gains it can bring to a company. Or improve the licensing of energy projects, said Paulo Carmona, who a month ago took on the role of general director of Energy.
2. End oil
- Over the years, the BP Energy Outlook always notes a significant reduction in the consumption of oil and natural gas, which will be replaced by electricity and renewable fuels and/or gases. But for Nuno Lapa, Gustavo Paulo Duarte and Paulo Carmona “it is impossible to do away with combustion engines”.
- The option, says Gustavo Paulo Duarte, is to keep everything as it is and focus on capturing the carbon emitted by trucks.
- Nuno Lapa points to biofuels and synthetic fuels, but disputes the contradictory signals given by Brussels. “Not allowing sales of combustion cars from 2035 was not a positive sign, because it discourages the manufacture of biofuels or synthetic fuels”, he concludes.
