Government forecasts average growth of 2% until 2028. Expenditure forecasts (most important for Brussels), only Monday
The government has already sent the medium-term forecasts to the European Commission within the scope of the new fiscal rules to which the 27 will be subject from 2025. In these tables, which should be publicly released this Monday, the Executive presents the macroeconomic scenario for the next four years – the minimum adjustment period admitted by Brussels for countries with significant deviations in both debt and deficit – which will serve as a basis, in turn, to arrive at the most important indicator for the community bureaucracy: the evolution of net expenditure .
The Public Finance Council, required by law to assess whether the Executive’s forecasts are reasonable and well-founded, complains that they were not provided with data to assess the most important indicator in the new European rules: the growth of net State expenditure.
The Executive did not provide the supervisory body with expenditure growth forecasts for the next four years – the minimum adjustment period for countries in breach of deficit and public debt levels (the latter being the case of Portugal, with an index much higher than the 60% of gross domestic product) – nor the so-called reference trajectory communicated by Brussels to countries in the summer, a technical estimate of how much expenditure can grow each year without endangering the sustainability of public accounts.
